王义国¹，吉安俊²，丁峥时¹，吕国良¹，李俊¹
    （1 江苏省无锡交通高等职业技术学校汽车与交通工程系，无锡214151；2 无锡市第二市政工程有限公司，无锡214000）

[摘要] 灰色预测模型对隧道围岩变形的预测有着较好的效果。研究结果表明，灰色Verhulst模型不仅可以对隧道围岩变形进行短期预测还适合进行长期预测，且预测精度与参数口有关。在短期预测精度上，GM(1,1)优化模型优于Verhulst模型。
[关键词] 隧道；围岩变形；预测模型

Study on grey predication model of tunnel surrounding rock deformation
Wang Yiguo¹, JiAnjun², Ding Zhengshi¹, Lu Guoliang¹,  Li Jun¹
(1 Department ofAutomobile and Traffic Engineering, Jiangsu Wuxi Institute of Communications Technology, Wuxi 214151,China; 2  Wuxi Second Municipal Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Wuxi 214000,China)

Abstract: The prediction accuracy of grey prediction model is very high in prediction of tunnel surrounding rock
deformation. The results indicated that Verhulst model is suitable for not only short-term predicition but also long-term
predicition of tunnel surrounding rock deformation,and the prediction accuracy has relation with parameter a.GM(1,1)
optimization model is superior to Verhulst model on short-term predicition.
Keywords: tunnel; surrounding rock deformation; prediction model