吴毅彬^1,2，  金国芳¹，  瞿  革²
   （1 同济大学结构工程与防灾研究所，上海 200092； 2 中船第九设计研究院工程有限公司，上海200063）

[摘要] 考虑实际工程中的不确定因素，将工程结构有限元分析与概率设计相结合。以一座存在初始缺陷的双曲线型冷却塔为工程背景，在对缺陷筒壁进行受力分析的基础上，利用ANSYS有限元概率设计PDS模块，采用混合模型分析方法对缺陷筒壁进行概率分析。结果表明，子午向弯矩M_x和环向轴力T_y对初始缺陷较为敏感，初始缺陷的存在使筒壁的失效概率明显地增大，同时混凝土强度是对筒壁子午向与环向内力影响最大的因素。相关分析思路与结果可为复杂工程的可靠度分析提供参考。
[关键词] 双曲线型冷却塔；初始缺陷；概率分析；有限元PDS模块
中图分类号：TU375.5    文献标识码：A    文章编号：1002-848X(2012) Sl-0801-05

Probability analysis of hyperbolic cooling tower with initial geometrical imperfections
Wu Yibin^1,2, Jin Guofang¹, Qu ge²
(1 Research Institute of Structural Engineering and Disaster Reduction,Tongji Uruversity,Shanghai 200092, China; 2 Slupbuilding NDRI Engineering Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200063, China)

Abstract: In consideration of the uncertain factors, a hyperbolic cooling tower with initial geometrical imperfections is studied by the PDS module in ANSYS. Contrastive analysis is made on stress,internal force, displacement and failure probability of cooling tower shell. It is indicated that the value of M_x and T_y is sensitive to the initial geometrical imperfections, and the failure of strengthened shell in imperfections increase in large. The experience gained in this case can be taken for reference by the similar engineering projects.
Keywords: hyperbolic cooling tower; initial geometrical imperfections; probability analysis; PDS technology