王成华  李武君　（天津大学建筑工程学院　300072）

[提要]  建立了带残差修正的一维新陈代谢灰色模型，根据工程实际试桩资料对未压坏桩荷载－沉降性状进行了预测分析，探讨了灰色模型用于单桩荷载沉降关系曲线预测的具体技术和可行性。对未压坏桩后半段荷载－沉降曲线进行预测时发现，桩的破坏模式对预测的效果影响较大。对于渐进型破坏桩的预测，可取得很好的预测精度，且有良好的适用性；而对于陡降型破坏桩，预测效果较差。通过采取加密预测取点法和引入修正系数的措施，使得对于陡降型桩的预测精度有较大提高。
[关键词]  灰色模型  荷载－沉降关系  预测精度  破坏模式

A metabolic one-dimensional grey model with error-correction is proposed to predict the entire load-settlement curves of piles that are actually not tested to failure state. The technique and its applicability of the grey model are discussed in detail.  It is found, during the prediction of the last potion of load-settlement curve, that the failure patterns of piles have an essential influence on the accuracy of the prediction. For piles with progressive failure pattern, the accuracy of the prediction is excellent and the applicability of the model is very well. The accuracy of the prediction of piles with sudden failure pattern is initially far from satisfaction. The accuracy of the piles with sudden failure pattern can be　substantially improved with the methods of condensing sampling points and introducing of a modify parameter.
Keywords:  grey model; load-settlement curve; prediction accuracy; failure patterns

    参  考  文  献
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