（1 宁波市电力设计院有限公司， 宁波 315000； 2 浙江大学建筑工程学院， 杭州 310058）

［摘要］采用了一种统计确定性模型结合4种不同的全球气候预测模型考察了气候变化对台风设计风速的影响，该方法以给定的气候环境条件为驱动采用统计模型生成大量的数值台风，因而可以模拟历史和未来预测气候条件下台风的发生情况。以杭州地区为例阐述了气候变化影响下设计台风风速从20世纪末到21世纪中叶的演化情况。研究结果显示：基于历史重分析气象条件模拟到的不同重现期台风设计风速与历史观测数据的分析结果吻合较好，表明该统计模型具有可靠性。大部分的气候模型预测显示杭州地区21世纪中叶的设计台风风速将可能超过20世纪末，且100年重现期下的设计台风风速随时间呈现增长趋势。因此在抗风设计中有必要考虑气候变化对设计风速所造成的影响。

［关键词］设计风速； 气候变化； 统计确定性模型； 地貌修正； 广义Pareto分布

中图分类号：TU312文献标识码：A文章编号：1002-848X(2020)14-0068-05

Study on design typhoon wind speed considering climate change

ZHONG Weijun1, XU Haiwei2, GUO Gaopeng1, YAN Haojun1

(1 Ningbo Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd.， Ningbo 315000, China;2 College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China)

Abstract:A statistical deterministic model combined with 4 different global climate projection models were used to investigate influence of climate change on design typhoon wind speed. This method can produce sufficient synthetic typhoons driven by given climatic environment conditions, thus it can be used to simulate typhoon under historical and projected climate conditions. Hangzhou area was used as an example to explain the influence of climate change on  evolvement of design typhoon wind speed from late 20th century to middle 21th century. The study shows that design typhoon wind speeds of different return periods estimated from reanalysis  climate condition and  historical observational data matched well, indicating that the applied statistical model is  accurate. Most of studied climate models project that design typhoon wind speed of Hangzhou at middle 21th century would exceed that of late 20th century and the design typhoon wind speed corresponding to 100-year return period increases with time. Therefore, it is necessary to consider effects of climate change on design wind speed in wind-resistant design.

Keywords:design wind speed； climate change； statistical deterministic model； terrain correction；generalized Pareto distribution

*中央高校基本科研业务费(2018QNA4026)，国家自然科学基金（51978614）。

作者简介：钟维军，硕士，高级工程师，Email:zwj3947@163.com。