（1 国网输电线路舞动防治技术重点实验室（国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院）， 郑州 450052；2 郑州大学土木工程学院， 郑州 450001）

［摘要］采用蒙特卡罗方法与响应面法相结合的方法，分析了三种常见钢结构变电构架在设计荷载作用下的承载力可靠度。结果表明：在设计荷载作用下，三种变电构架承载能力的可靠度均随着构件损伤程度的增大而降低。当构件损伤程度较轻时，整个变电构架的结构可靠度并不明显降低，此时整个结构仍具有良好的工作性能；随着构件损伤程度的增大，结构的可靠概率明显降低，结构很快就变得不可靠，此时须立即修复或更换受损构件，以保证变电构架结构整体的安全性。

［关键词］变电构架； 凹陷损伤； 极限承载力； 概率灵敏度； 可靠度分析

中图分类号：TU279-7+44文献标识码：A文章编号：1002-848X(2018)17-0118-05

Reliability analysis of bearing capacity of dent-damaged substation structures based on the united arithmetic method

Lü Zhongbin1, Zhang Meng2

(1 State Grid Key Laboratory of Transmission Line Galloping Control Technology (State Grid Henan Electric Power Corporation Electric Power Research Institute)，Zhengzhou 450052, China; 2 School of Civil Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China)

Abstract:The united arithmetic method of Monte Carlo method and response surface method were adopted to compute the reliability of steel substation structures under the design loads. The results show that the reliability of the bearing capacity of the three kinds of substation structures decrease with the increase of dent-damage degree. However, minor dent-damage of the members can hardly reduce the structure′s reliability, and the structure has well working performance. Serious dent-damage degree of the members reduces the reliability probability of the structure obviously, and the structure will soon become unreliable, and the damaged members must be repaired or replaced immediately to ensure the safety of the whole  substation structure.

Keywords:substation  structure; dent-damage; ultimate bearing capacity; probabilistic sensitivity; reliability analysis

*中国博士后科学基金资助项目（20090450935），国网河南省电力公司科技专项（2016-01-06）。

作者简介：吕中宾，硕士，教授级高级工程师，Email: gylzb@qq.com。