基于贝叶斯理论的增量动力分析曲线簇统计分析方法*
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（1 湖南大学土木工程学院，长沙 410082； 2 湖南农业大学工学院，长沙 410128）
［摘要］地震易损性分析是评估建筑结构抗震性能的重要手段，增量动力分析又是地震易损性分析的数据基础，其曲线簇的统计分析直接关系着地震易损性分析结果。然而，由于增量动力分析曲线存在“非单调”、“回折”和“平台阶段”等复杂现象，常见的统计分析方法均存在一定的限制。基于贝叶斯理论，提出了一种新的统计分析方法。该方法可以较好地解决由于增量动力分析曲线簇的复杂性而引起的统计问题。最后，利用提出的贝叶斯统计分析方法对一个3跨3层钢筋混凝土框架结构开展了地震易损性分析，表明该方法可以有效地开展IDA曲线簇统计分析。［关键词］增量动力分析; 统计分析; 地震易损性; 分位线; 贝叶斯理论中图分类号：TU375.4 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1002-848X(2016)03-0044-05
Statistical analysis method of incremental dynamic analysis curves based on Bayesian methodologyHe Yibin1, Deng Peng 1, Zhang Chao1, Fang Liang1, 2, Shen Pusheng1(1 College of Civil Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China; 2 College of Engineering, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China)Abstract:Seismic fragility analysis is an important tool to assess the seismic performance of buildings. Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is the data basis of seismic fragility analysis. The statistical analysis of IDA curves profoundly affects the seismic fragility results. However, since the behaviour of IDA curves features complicated phenomena such as nonmonotonic, back-and-forth twisting and platform, the application of conventional statistical analysis method is limited. Thus, a new statistical analysis based on Bayesian methodology was proposed to address these statistical problems brought by the complex behaviour of IDA curves. Finally, seismic fragility analysis was performed for a three-story and three-bay RC frame by the proposed Bayesian statistical analysis method, which shows that this method can effectively conduct IDA curve statistical analysis.Keywords:incremental dynamic analysis; statistical analysis; seismic fragility; fractile curve; Bayesian methodology
*科技部国际科技合作与交流专项（2011DFA72320），“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目（No.2012BAK15B02），湖南省教育厅科学研究项目（11B062）。作者简介：何益斌，教授，博士生导师，教育部长江学者特聘教授，Email：ybhe@hnu.edu.cn。
